Carousel by Denis Phillips
![Photo by Denis Phillips on September 18, 2026. May be an image of map, radar and text that says 'NTICAIFS-ENS TIC Cyclone Locations P2026 --> UNTIL 06Z030CT2026 Next [15-days] o-o ENSEMBLE ENSEMBLEMEAN MEAN o-o 1000- 1010 hPa o-o 980- 999 hPa 999hPa 米 5W 90W 85W 80W 75W 70W 65W 60W 55W 50W 45W 40W 35W 30W 25W 20W 15W we weathe'.](https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/v/t51.82787-15/813698558_18630251041036015_5193367938938323586_n.heic?stp=dst-jpg_e35_tt6&_nc_cat=103&_nc_map=urlgen_bucketless&ig_cache_key=Mzk4OTAwODYyNzM0MzMxODUwMg%3D%3D.3-ccb7-5&ccb=7-5&_nc_sid=58cdad&efg=eyJ2ZW5jb2RlX3RhZyI6IkNBUk9VU0VMX0lURU0ueHBpZHMuMTQ0MC5zZHIucmVndWxhcl9waG90by5DMyJ9&_nc_ohc=OAa4paCtI1gQ7kNvwFhdSnC&_nc_oc=Adq304ujcZ8p15xZeInxc8_CTYbofRhgaMwvLPHJpoFMUd7yimuoVPF5ITiTQajWQK4&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=instagram.fotp5-1.fna&_nc_gid=0yx9PyNvgxozUtN6aolHPw&_nc_ss=7da8c&oh=00_AQJ-lI--qdUGV-HCEQVHqz8NL3sRL45UIGXta_XBvgS-Ag&oe=6ABDCEC2)
![Photo by Denis Phillips on September 18, 2026. May be an image of map, radar and text that says 'oogle Deep Mind FNv3 Genesis uidance [50-members] Next 15-days Init: 2026091806 0-0 -1010 -1010 hpa 1000- 10h hP 1010 hPa 0-0 980 999 Pa 0-0 960- 960 -97 979hP 950- اد hPa -0 0-0 920 Pa 90W 80W 85W dels.com 75W 70W 65W 60W 55W 50W 45W 40W 35W 30W 25W 20W 15W'.](https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/v/t51.82787-15/811102524_18630251050036015_6621783620112154106_n.heic?stp=dst-jpg_e35_tt6&_nc_cat=108&_nc_map=urlgen_bucketless&ig_cache_key=Mzk4OTAwODYyODEwNjY5OTczMw%3D%3D.3-ccb7-5&ccb=7-5&_nc_sid=58cdad&efg=eyJ2ZW5jb2RlX3RhZyI6IkNBUk9VU0VMX0lURU0ueHBpZHMuMTQ0MC5zZHIucmVndWxhcl9waG90by5DMyJ9&_nc_ohc=2ZbDQt_q8WAQ7kNvwGwicF-&_nc_oc=AdpfvclwHbupELaYs5Bjc-xfs_lDLD_MUyvNJoYj1aSSaPYEplX8mAWxF8xckvjs5M4&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=instagram.fotp5-1.fna&_nc_gid=0yx9PyNvgxozUtN6aolHPw&_nc_ss=7da8c&oh=00_AQKewkiUD--SlSFzXCb1krfiixCv4H_jvcdAtJ83OdtmPQ&oe=6ABDD7A4)
Denis Phillips@denisphillipsabcweather Tropical Thoughts: 1. As many of you know, the Gfs(icane) loves to spin up long range storms. It was doing it again. Now, it's not. Classic GFS. 2. What you see here are Euro and Deep Earth ensembles. Neither show much. Only a handful of the dozens of simulated runs do much of anything. We'll watch, but really nothing worrisome to see here. 3. Now, the important part. As cold fronts come to Florida in October and November, they often stall over the state. It's normal for low pressure to develop along these fronts in the Gulf. These can be tropical or subtropical, so we'll be looking for that over the next 8 weeks. Again, right now...NOTHING. 4. Finally, El Nino has done a super job squashing development so far. Late season storms are less impacted by El Nino effects when they are "home grown". In other words, develop in the Gulf, Bahamas or Northern Caribbean. So IF anything gets going, it will likely be there. 5. Not a single hurricane so far in the Atlantic. Let's keep it that way.
Comments
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@danilynn_fitness Thank you always Denis!!!
@teiilayh Thanks for this !
· 1 likes
@juliluinst Thank you👏🙌
· 1 likes
@lab_adorer Thank you for the update Denis!!!! 🙌
· 2 likes
@gskip Denis, I’m flying from TPA to Ocean City, MD Friday - Sunday for @oceanscallingmd music festival. The festival is held on the boardwalk in Ocean City. What are the chances this thing happens and what am I flying into (and should I)?